by Shaheed Sehbai
Lack of confidence, and initiative, both in the political and military leadership, has pushed the country into a blind alley while a defeated but stubborn president seems determined to avenge his humiliation by destroying the political system which he has failed to control.The political leadership is failing dismally to grasp the damage being caused to its own capacity to take control of matters as a flip-flop coalition of all kinds of apples and oranges muddles through, directionless and clueless.
Every student of politics can visualise the logjam that has been created by the Feb 18 results. While the mandate was absolutely clear and resounding against President Pervez Musharraf, he has refused to admit it and continues to assert himself, hoping that the others would commit mistakes and give him the opening to regain his lost power and credibility.
That this fatalistic approach is against the national interest and could cause grievous damage to the country is beyond his imagination or understanding.
The political parties have formed a wishy-washy coalition but their commitment and sincerity is tested every day and with each passing day its capacity to take decisive action diminishes.
The mistakes being made by the political leaders, especially Asif Ali Zardari, are already costing him his credibility and image. The flip-flop cavalier manner in which he is conducting the affairs of the State will soon turn into a laughing stock with no one to trust his word or capability. As soon as the stoned and somewhat dazed PPP leadership wakes up and realizes that Zardari was not fit to lead the party or the coalition, as he has tried to play too many clever tricks with too many people, too many times, the revolt from within will destroy the PPP itself. That realization has not yet dawned on Zardari yet. The military leadership, which has the heaviest responsibility and the biggest stake in the system, and the country, is going too easy or avoiding taking tough decisions just to show that the Army is no longer involved in politics. It is politics of sorts.
The fact is that its non-involvement may cause more harm than good to the country because the crunch time is already here and not much would be left if tough and collective decisions for the country are not taken now.
A political coalition fighting a desperate president with a divided establishment and a sidelined Army will mean that no decisions will be possible.
The volume and size of the economic, social and political crises about to hit the country is catastrophic but neither the political leadership seems aware, not the military generals are worried and both seem to be silently shifting the blame and responsibility of handling it on each other.
For instance, the World Bank and other Western donors have already started squeezing the country making such tough demands that even a government of national unity, with complete harmony, would find it hard to oblige or implement, given the total despondency and helplessness among the crushed masses.
One example is the ultimatum given by the World Bank to the economic managers to raise the electricity tariff within a few months by almost 110 per cent, from Rs 5.50 a unit to almost Rs 12.50 a unit. This is not a suggestion but an order. What would this hike mean politically is clear.
Likewise, the political games President Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz played with the country by postponing every tough decision so that the jokers of the PML-Q could win, or made to win, the polls, have left the new government with no options but to dish out enormous petrol and gas price increases, devalue the rupee against the dollar, manipulate the stock exchange and still have no room for manoeuvre.
The Western powers, especially the US, are still confused on whose side to throw their weight. The easier option is to continue with the status quo and support President Musharraf but the US does not realise that as long as Musharraf stays in his seat, stability will not return to the country.
In that confusion instead of helping the new and unsettled democracy, Washington is tightening the screws. It has stopped cash reimbursements for the war on terror. It has twisted the arms of the Saudis not to bail out Pakistan with cheap or free oil, as it used to do for dictators in the past. The World Bank/IMF have also been unleashed. Even our own State Bank, which should have been guarding against all these system failures, has started raising alarms, warning of impending disasters.
So if Washington is interested in an unstable Pakistan, this may be the right strategy but if it thinks that by pushing Islamabad to the wall the democratic experiment will soon fail and another general will impose military rule to carry further its war on terror against the people of Pakistan, it may be thinking too far.
The fleeting hours, days and weeks require a strong and stable government which can tackle the real issues but the recipe which is being tried is a mish-mash of a discredited president on the top, deeply obligated and compromised political leadership in parliament and a pliant judiciary to cover up every misdeed. This is not going to work.
But those who have to make the decisions, President Musharraf, General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, Asif Ali Zardari and Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry are not on the same page, with each player on his own ego trip and in the process making a mess of the so called democracy that everyone was yelling for. This is the big conspiracy against the people.
Dillydallying by all sides must end, and now. The president has ultimately to go, as he has already played his innings, so he must quit now to let the system find its own stability. Zardari must start saying things that he means and not lose more face and credibility. Chief Justice Iftikhar should be restored by annulling Nov 3 but then he should indicate he would move on, so that he plays a bigger role.
General Kayani must make up his mind where he stands and clearly and quickly let the nation know it. It is him who is keeping the pot boiling and not letting the new system settle down.
Source: The News, June 1, 2008.
Lack of confidence, and initiative, both in the political and military leadership, has pushed the country into a blind alley while a defeated but stubborn president seems determined to avenge his humiliation by destroying the political system which he has failed to control.The political leadership is failing dismally to grasp the damage being caused to its own capacity to take control of matters as a flip-flop coalition of all kinds of apples and oranges muddles through, directionless and clueless.
Every student of politics can visualise the logjam that has been created by the Feb 18 results. While the mandate was absolutely clear and resounding against President Pervez Musharraf, he has refused to admit it and continues to assert himself, hoping that the others would commit mistakes and give him the opening to regain his lost power and credibility.
That this fatalistic approach is against the national interest and could cause grievous damage to the country is beyond his imagination or understanding.
The political parties have formed a wishy-washy coalition but their commitment and sincerity is tested every day and with each passing day its capacity to take decisive action diminishes.
The mistakes being made by the political leaders, especially Asif Ali Zardari, are already costing him his credibility and image. The flip-flop cavalier manner in which he is conducting the affairs of the State will soon turn into a laughing stock with no one to trust his word or capability. As soon as the stoned and somewhat dazed PPP leadership wakes up and realizes that Zardari was not fit to lead the party or the coalition, as he has tried to play too many clever tricks with too many people, too many times, the revolt from within will destroy the PPP itself. That realization has not yet dawned on Zardari yet. The military leadership, which has the heaviest responsibility and the biggest stake in the system, and the country, is going too easy or avoiding taking tough decisions just to show that the Army is no longer involved in politics. It is politics of sorts.
The fact is that its non-involvement may cause more harm than good to the country because the crunch time is already here and not much would be left if tough and collective decisions for the country are not taken now.
A political coalition fighting a desperate president with a divided establishment and a sidelined Army will mean that no decisions will be possible.
The volume and size of the economic, social and political crises about to hit the country is catastrophic but neither the political leadership seems aware, not the military generals are worried and both seem to be silently shifting the blame and responsibility of handling it on each other.
For instance, the World Bank and other Western donors have already started squeezing the country making such tough demands that even a government of national unity, with complete harmony, would find it hard to oblige or implement, given the total despondency and helplessness among the crushed masses.
One example is the ultimatum given by the World Bank to the economic managers to raise the electricity tariff within a few months by almost 110 per cent, from Rs 5.50 a unit to almost Rs 12.50 a unit. This is not a suggestion but an order. What would this hike mean politically is clear.
Likewise, the political games President Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz played with the country by postponing every tough decision so that the jokers of the PML-Q could win, or made to win, the polls, have left the new government with no options but to dish out enormous petrol and gas price increases, devalue the rupee against the dollar, manipulate the stock exchange and still have no room for manoeuvre.
The Western powers, especially the US, are still confused on whose side to throw their weight. The easier option is to continue with the status quo and support President Musharraf but the US does not realise that as long as Musharraf stays in his seat, stability will not return to the country.
In that confusion instead of helping the new and unsettled democracy, Washington is tightening the screws. It has stopped cash reimbursements for the war on terror. It has twisted the arms of the Saudis not to bail out Pakistan with cheap or free oil, as it used to do for dictators in the past. The World Bank/IMF have also been unleashed. Even our own State Bank, which should have been guarding against all these system failures, has started raising alarms, warning of impending disasters.
So if Washington is interested in an unstable Pakistan, this may be the right strategy but if it thinks that by pushing Islamabad to the wall the democratic experiment will soon fail and another general will impose military rule to carry further its war on terror against the people of Pakistan, it may be thinking too far.
The fleeting hours, days and weeks require a strong and stable government which can tackle the real issues but the recipe which is being tried is a mish-mash of a discredited president on the top, deeply obligated and compromised political leadership in parliament and a pliant judiciary to cover up every misdeed. This is not going to work.
But those who have to make the decisions, President Musharraf, General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, Asif Ali Zardari and Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry are not on the same page, with each player on his own ego trip and in the process making a mess of the so called democracy that everyone was yelling for. This is the big conspiracy against the people.
Dillydallying by all sides must end, and now. The president has ultimately to go, as he has already played his innings, so he must quit now to let the system find its own stability. Zardari must start saying things that he means and not lose more face and credibility. Chief Justice Iftikhar should be restored by annulling Nov 3 but then he should indicate he would move on, so that he plays a bigger role.
General Kayani must make up his mind where he stands and clearly and quickly let the nation know it. It is him who is keeping the pot boiling and not letting the new system settle down.
Source: The News, June 1, 2008.
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